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Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025, against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and fiscal pressure.
Contents
With the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) anticipated to downgrade its economic and fiscal outlook, it’s widely expected that the Government will face a fiscal shortfall. Economists and analysts predict this could be in the region of between £20 to £40 billion. While deep spending cuts remain politically and practically difficult, further tax rises appear likely. The key question remains: who will shoulder the burden?
Government promises v. the fiscal gap
The Government has pledged not to raise National Insurance, income tax rates (basic, higher and additional), VAT, or the headline rate of corporation tax. Together, these four taxes account for nearly 75% of total tax receipts. These commitments significantly limit the Chancellor’s options. Even small increases to these taxes could generate substantial revenue.
To raise meaningful revenue without breaking these promises, the Chancellor will need to get creative. However, making small adjustments across multiple taxes risks adding further complexity to an already intricate tax system, with potential trade-offs for growth and investment, which are both critical to reversing the UK’s ever-growing tax burden.
While the Government currently remains committed to its manifesto pledges, a close eye should be kept on whether the Government holds the line on its headline commitments in the coming weeks. Recent signals suggest pressure mounting, such as the CBI calling for a rethink of these pledges, and perhaps other stakeholders may soon follow.
As we roll into autumn speculation is building. How far the Chancellor has to go will ultimately depend on the size of the fiscal black hole.
Economic growth v. rising taxes
Autumn Budget 2024 was a major tax-raising budget, particularly for businesses. Over half of the additional tax revenue raised is due to come from employers, as a result of the rise in employer National Insurance contributions from April 2025.
The Corporation Tax Roadmap, published alongside last year's Autumn Budget, was the key business offer from that Budget. It was looking to provide predictability, stability and certainty over the corporate tax landscape to help businesses make investments and drive growth. There's lots in that roadmap on what won't change, including the corporation tax headline rate. It also provides certainty that some of the UK's attractive incentives such as full expensing, R&D tax reliefs and the patent box will remain.
Despite this, according to Grant Thornton’s latest Business Outlook Tracker (June 2025) 75% of businesses expect further business tax increases this year. In what may be an effort to ease such concerns, Sir Keir Starmer established a Budget Board in early September, tasked with driving growth and maintaining support from both business and the City—potentially signalling a more pro-business approach than Labour’s 2024 Budget. While the Government may aim for a more business-friendly tone this time around, fiscal pressures remain and increases in sector-specific taxation —particularly on gambling and banking—remain the subject of speculation.
Business rates reform
In its Transforming Business Rates: Interim Report (11 September), the Government confirmed that further announcements on Business Rates reform will be made at the upcoming Budget. These are expected to focus on removing barriers to investment, including:
A potential marginal tax rate system, where successive bands are taxed at increasing rates
Enhancements to small business rates relief and improvement relief
Together, these changes could signal a rebalancing of the business rates burden and support the Government’s broader objective of supporting the high street through a fairer system.
Businesses are also awaiting updates on the Government’s e-invoicing proposals, following its consultation earlier this year. This initiative could mark a major step forward in modernising business processes and tax reporting across the UK. Organisations should ensure this is firmly on their transformation and change agendas, as it will likely require significant adjustments to processes within tax and finance departments.
Corporate tax has been a central focus for this Government in its efforts to provide businesses with greater certainty. In the Autumn Budget 2024, it published a Corporate Tax Roadmap outlining key commitments, including:
Capping the headline rate at 25% for the duration of this Parliament
Maintaining full expensing and R&D reliefs
Further measures to provide additional certainty currently under consultation may be addressed in the upcoming Budget, focused on targeting major investment projects and R&D tax relief. An update is also expected on changes to the transfer pricing regime, including the proposal the Government has recently consulted on to remove the exemption from transfer pricing for medium-sized groups.
What could the Budget mean for individuals and entrepreneurs?
While the Government has pledged not to raise income tax rates, this does not preclude it from increasing revenue altogether from income tax. The specific wording of the pledge applies only to rates, leaving thresholds—an equally important lever—outside its scope.
These thresholds, which it should be noted are devolved in Scotland, are already frozen until April 2028. As incomes rise, this freeze will result in fiscal drag, meaning more people are paying tax or paying tax at a higher rate, increasing overall tax receipts. Extending the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond 2028 could generate billions in additional revenue, with much of the impact only felt in future years—potentially allowing it to go largely unnoticed by the public.
However, the Chancellor boxed herself in at the Autumn Budget 2024 by committing to only resume inflation-linked uprating of thresholds from 2028–29. So while not a manifesto pledge, rolling back on that promise would likely not escape political scrutiny.
Beyond tax, the Government's promise to support entrepreneurs is backed by initiatives like the Plan for Change and Invest 2035, a long-term industrial strategy to boost UK productivity. These strategies aim to unlock growth and provide certainty around investment and skills development, but many SMEs are nervous, and uncertainty around the future appears to be acting as a drag on the economy—which could have an adverse effect on hiring, investment and succession planning. SMEs and entrepreneurs are really looking for this Budget to provide certainty over Government policy, both around the future tax landscape and wider business support in the long-term.
Focus on wealth?
The Government’s Budget press release, titled “Budget to address economy that’s not working well enough for working people,” suggests that “working people” will be at the heart of the 2025 Budget, as they were in 2024 —potentially signalling that increased taxation on the wealthy could again be a key source of revenue.
However, beyond the headline, the Government is also prioritising fiscal stability, investment and economic growth. The OBR’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report (July 2025) warned of the risks associated with relying too heavily on a small, mobile group of high earners for revenue. Perhaps some of this sentiment may have fed through to the Chancellor’s narrative, most notably on her opposition to a wealth tax, with the Chancellor describing it as a “mistake” and “unproven”.
Still, calls from within the Labour Party—especially during the current deputy leadership campaign—to revisit the idea of a wealth tax highlight the delicate balance the Chancellor will need to strike between party politics and the Chancellor’s priorities.
While a broad wealth tax may not be top to the Chancellor’s wish list, this doesn’t rule out targeted measures on specific forms of wealth. Recent speculation has centred on:
Potential reforms to Inheritance Tax—including tighter rules on lifetime gifts
Further changes to Capital Gains Tax and the taxation of pensions
Property taxation, with growing support for reforming Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), which is often criticised for hindering growth. Although there may be strong policy rationale for reform, the revenue impact is uncertain, depending heavily on the specific design. Additional proposals speculated on for raising property-related revenue include:
imposing national insurance on landlords
restricting primary residency relief (from CGT) on high value properties
extending SDLT to the sale of entities holding real estate.
Promises, predictions and pressures: What’s next?
The Government entered office with a bold commitment to drive economic growth, reassuring the electorate that it wouldn’t adopt a tax-and-spend approach. The upcoming Autumn Budget is set to be a pivotal moment in whether the Government can deliver on this.
Stay informed by signing up to our Autumn Budget content. We’ll explore in greater detail what the Budget could bring as we head towards 26 November and share our Insights on the day itself.
This period presents a valuable opportunity for businesses and individuals to assess their tax position and consider how potential reform could impact them. For tailored advice or to discuss how possible changes may affect you or your business, please get in touch.
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