We asked 500 UK business leaders, finance leaders and heads of tax what they want from the Autumn Budget on 28 October. Abby Agopian, Head of Tax Policy, and other partners from across the firm explain why the top two answers make this a hard Budget to get right.  

Simplification and stability beat every ask for more money. Meanwhile, 65% of business leaders are holding investment decisions until 28 October, and that wait is quietly becoming the most expensive part of the problem. 

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What businesses are hoping to hear on Budget day

  • Simplify the tax system and reduce compliance burdens: 44%
  • A more stable, predictable corporation tax regime: 39%
  • Support with energy costs: 38%
  • Better investment incentives, such as capital allowances and research and development (R&D) relief: 37%
  • Avoid further business tax rises: 34%

The two strongest asks are both about how the tax system works, with avoiding further tax rises in fifth. Business leaders have put the mechanics ahead of the money, because friction and uncertainty cost something separate from the tax bill: time, professional fees, decisions deferred, plans reworked.

This is a hard ask to meet - any Budget that introduces new reliefs, new thresholds and new reporting obligations makes the system more complicated, even if an individual measure is welcome.

Simplification and stability beat every ask for more money

The two strongest asks are both about how the tax system works, with avoiding further tax rises in fifth.
44%
Simplification
“What businesses are calling for isn't necessarily a complete absence of change – it's a clear, predictable sense of direction they can plan around. Being able to determine the future tax due on an investment decision being made today is key, and so is having certainty over how the tax rules apply to that investment - simplification sits at the heart of delivering that clarity for business”
Abigail Agopian Director, Head of Tax Policy

The wish list splits by size, too. Owner-managed and smaller businesses put energy support (39%) and avoiding further tax rises (35%) as their top relief, while large corporates want stability and investment incentives (both 45%). Energy costs are less of a priority for large corporates at 29%. 

The pressure a Budget cannot reach

When asked to name their biggest current challenges, leaders said: 

  • Cyber security risks: 38%, rising to 41% among large corporates
  • Economic uncertainty: 34%
  • Adopting artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technology: 30%
  • Rising labour costs: 27%
  • Energy and input costs: 24%
  • Skills and talent shortages: 22%
  • Regulatory or compliance burden: 20%, rising to 25% among large corporates

Only 6% said they face no significant challenges at all.

Cyber and AI sit above cost and tax. That is a striking result: the two things most likely to derail a business this year are two things a Budget barely touches. A chancellor can move rates and allowances. Very little in a Budget speech reaches the risk of a ransomware attack or the cost of getting AI adoption wrong.

38%
of leaders name cyber security risks among their biggest current challenges, rising to 41% among large corporates. Cyber and AI sit above cost and tax.
"The scepticism in this sector's numbers isn't surprising given what retail, catering and leisure businesses have been through. High-profile cyber incidents and relentless cost pressure are the daily reality, and 42% cite each as a top challenge, the highest of any sector we surveyed. The sector has been vocal about what it needs from Government. Half say they'll raise prices if that support doesn't materialise, so the test now is whether the Budget actually delivers, not just whether it's been heard."
Philip Stephenson Partner

The size split appears again here. Smaller businesses worry far less about cyber and AI, and more about labour and energy costs. They’re managing operational cost pressure, whereas mid-market and large corporates are managing strategic and technology risk. 

Same Budget, three different moods 

Company size changes almost everything about how this Budget is being approached. 

32%
Owner-managed businesses
Not confident in the direction of governement economic policy since the leadership change.
11%
Mid-market businesses
Not confident in the direction of governement economic policy since the leadership change.
17%
Large corporates
Not confident in the direction of governement economic policy since the leadership change.

Owner-managed businesses are watching from the sidelines 

They are the most pessimistic group on every confidence measure we surveyed. 

32% are not confident in the direction of government economic policy since the leadership change compared to only 11% of mid-market businesses and 17% of large corporates. And they are also the group most likely to absorb a disappointing Budget and change nothing material, which fits with expecting less from it in the first place. That reads as disengagement more than anger. 

"Many owner-managed businesses have already deferred what they can. A large corporate facing a disappointing Budget can delay a capital programme or a recruitment round. Smaller businesses have far less room to do that, so the strongest lever left is raising prices into an already squeezed market."
Hannah Magee Tax Director, Grant Thornton

The mid-market is leaning in

The most optimistic and the most Budget-engaged group in the survey: planning hardest, expecting most. 

Large corporates are sceptical, but are the ones who move

They doubt the Budget will do much for them, and they are the most willing to act if it doesn't: 42% would delay or cancel UK projects and capital expenditure, and 38% would freeze recruitment or cut hours.

But overall the national picture looks reasonably healthy: 

  • 70% expect the Budget to have a positive impact on their business
  • 71% expect material relief from tax and cost pressures
  • 67% are confident the prime minister and chancellor understand business needs

Expectations that high are their own kind of risk. The more relief priced in, the further there is to fall after the Budget.

What happens if the Budget doesn't deliver

We asked what business leaders would do if the Budget delivered no material relief from tax and cost pressures: 

  • Increase prices or fees: 39%, rising to 43% in the mid-market
  • Delay or cancel UK projects and capital expenditure: 35%, rising to 42% among large corporates, the highest single reading in the question
  • Freeze recruitment or cut hours: 32%, rising to 38% among large corporates
  • Move investment or activity outside the UK: 30%
  • Reduce headcount: 28%

Two of those five affect households rather than balance sheets. Higher prices and fewer jobs are the uncomfortable arithmetic of a Budget that has to find revenue somewhere.

"Growth depends on the UK remaining an attractive place to invest, not just for the businesses already established here, but for those deciding where to go next and how to grow. Businesses are facing what feels like an ever-increasing tax burden, macroeconomic uncertainty and cost pressures. Without relief in the Budget, many may look elsewhere when deciding where to build their next factory, open their next store or hire their next employee.”
Tom Middleton Partner

Which sectors are closest to acting

Retail, catering and leisure squeezed at both ends 

  • They see their biggest challenges as cyber security (42%) and energy and input costs (42%)
  • Most likely to raise prices if no relief arrives: 50%, against 39% across the sample
  • This is the lowest sector on every confidence measure: only 53% expect a positive Budget impact (vs 70% All) and only 47% confident in the direction of policy
“Retail, catering and leisure operators are caught in a genuine double bind this Budget: absorbing rising tax and energy costs on one side, while serving customers who are themselves squeezed by the cost of living on the other. Get this Budget right, and it doesn't just ease pressure on business, it eases the price consumers pay too, a rare case where sector relief and household relief are the same ask.”
Irena Scullion Partner

Healthcare is the sector most likely to leave the UK 

  • Skills and talent shortages top its challenge list: 39%, against 22% overall
  • Highest demand for tax simplification: 55%, against 44%
  • Most likely to close a UK site or move investment overseas if the pressure doesn't ease: 36% on both, against 15% and 30%

That is a structural answer to a cyclical problem, and it doesn't reverse when the Budget improves.

IT and telecoms has the furthest to fall 

  • Most worried about the wider economy: 45%, against 34%
  • Yet 84% expect this Budget to help them, and 82% are confident the prime minister and chancellor understand business needs

The other three sectors, briefly: 

  • Manufacturing and utilities want business rates reform more than any other sector, at 37% against 28% - reform that sits outside the corporation tax debate driving most other sectors’ asks
  • Financial services track the national average almost exactly, with one exception: 28% name regulatory and compliance burden as a challenge, against 20% overall
  • Architecture, engineering and building has largely stopped watching, with 66% planning ahead against 83% across the sample

The cost of waiting

Two answers sit together awkwardly. 65% say they will delay investment decisions until after the Budget, while 83% are planning ahead so they can act quickly once announcements land. 

So the pause is deliberate and well organised, but it’s still a pause. Roughly two-thirds of the leaders we surveyed are holding decisions in a queue behind one afternoon in late October. That queue carries a cost no Budget measure will refund. It leaves contracts unsigned, projects that slip a quarter into a different financial year and hires that go to someone else. 

65%
Delay investment
decisions until after the Budget.
83%
Planning ahead
so they can act quickly once announcements land.
“With economic uncertainty ranking second among business leaders' "challenges," and simplification and stability in the corporation tax system taking the top two spots among their "asks," the messages for the Chancellor are clear. But how will the Autumn Budget perform against what 500 business leaders have told us they need?”
Yvonne Chappell Partner

Pre-Budget commentary tends to skip past this, because the uncertainty driving it won’t lift until the government’s own announcements are made on 28 October. 

What should businesses be doing now?

While the details are unknown, plenty is still within your control. Here are five things worth thinking about before 28 October rather than after it: 

  1. Separate genuinely Budget-dependent decisions from the rest
    Most plans hold fewer real dependencies than a blanket pause implies, and some of your plans might be able to go ahead now.
  2. Decide in advance what would change your mind
    Setting your trigger points before the speech turns a reaction into a plan.
  3. Model the scenarios you can price
    Where a decision hinges on a rate or a relief, model the numbers now, so you’re ready to act on 28 October.
  4. Get your compliance in order
    If you're hoping for simplification, start by mapping where your current obligations cost the most time and money. Having systems and good quality data in place will make your evidence easier to gather if you need to respond to the announcements.
  5. If a transaction or a succession step is in motion, look at the timing early
    There may be a window to act, and the answer will differ case by case depending on what is announced.

Not sure how to prepare?

If you'd like to talk through what these findings mean for your own planning, get in touch here. 

About the research

Censuswide surveyed 500 UK business leaders, finance leaders and heads of tax between 28th August and 8th September 2026, at organisations with 25 or more employees. 

The sample comprised 100 sole traders and owners of businesses with revenue under £50 million, 300 mid-market organisations with revenue between £50 million and £1 billion, and 100 large corporates with revenue above £1 billion. 

Sector findings are reported only where the base is 30 responses or more.