Our analysis of what was announced.
The UK Autumn Budget lands against a difficult backdrop. Conflict in the Middle East has been driving up energy prices since March; inflation is yet to peak and interest rates could rise.
While the UK was the joint-fastest growing G7 country in the first half of this year, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) analysis that accompanies the Budget showed a substantial downgrade in forecast growth driven by energy prices and interest rates. In March the OBR thought growth would be 1.6% in 2027 and inflation would fall to 2% by the end of this year. It now expects inflation to peak at 3.8% in early 2027 and growth of just 1.0%. Unemployment is expected to peak at around 5.1% in mid-2027 and real earnings to stall next year.
Manifesto pledges, fiscal rules, a high tax burden, high debt and high debt-servicing costs constrained the chancellor. As a result, this Budget turns a lot of small dials and leaves the big levers for later.
The most significant interventions are in energy:
Businesses we surveyed before the Budget asked for simplicity. The policy scorecard runs to 98 measures, most of them modest and more than a dozen time-limited, for example in principle, the VAT and fuel duty relief end next July.
Devolution is one area where there may be more structural change to come:
The bigger calls on public spending, devolution funding and tax simplification have been left to the 2027 Tax Update, the 10-Year Plan and to next year’s spending review. Changes to the pensions triple lock won’t take effect until the next Parliament.
The Budget buys some breathing space, but it comes with more government borrowing over the next three years, lower fiscal headroom (£14.5 billion, down from £21.7 billion last November) and a temporary rise in the bank surcharge to help fund the £100 payment.
Our experts give their on-the-day analysis of what was announced in the UK Budget and what it means for businesses, individuals and entrepreneurs.
Abby Agopian looks at the measures most likely to feature, and what they could mean for businesses, individuals and entrepreneurs.
We asked 500 UK business leaders, finance leaders and heads of tax what they want from the Autumn Budget on 28 October.
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The Autumn Budget took place on 28 October 2026.
Andy Burnham was the UK prime minister and John Healey was chancellor. Most recently Healey was the former defence minister. He does have some Treasury experience, having held junior ministerial roles there during New Labour, between 2002 and 2007.
Three cost-of-living measures: VAT removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October, the £2 bus fare cap restored, and the 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues from April 2027.
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Check out our insights for on-the-day analysis of the Budget.
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