Our unique insight into the UK mid-market
This round finds a dampening of confidence in the market since the highs at the beginning of the year. Despite this dip, confidence remains above the rolling average, showing that the mid-market isn't deterred.
Net 80% of respondents are optimistic about the outlook of the UK economy, a -3 percentage point (pp) increase compared to February, but +1pp above average net confidence increase since 2021. Business pessimism about the UK economy is still at low levels.
Rolling averages for graph:
Optimism on the outlook of the UK economy over next six months
Revenue growth expectations also decreased slightly in April, down -5pp compared to February but +8pp higher than the rolling average. Net 8% of respondents are now pessimistic about their revenue growth – no change since February.
Rolling averages for graph:
Optimism on business revenue growth over next six months
In April confidence in their funding position had fallen by -8pp from the highest levels ever seen on the Tracker in February. The percentage of businesses pessimistic about their position remained low, with only a +1pp increase since February.
Rolling averages for graph:
Optimism on business funding position over next six months
Profit expectations dipped considerably since February, decreasing by a significant -18pp compared to then. There was also a steep increase (+15pp) in those expecting profits to decrease. This decline in profit expectations comes from a record high, and still remains at above average levels since October 2023.
Profit growth expectations over next six months
“Mid-market businesses are the real powerhouse of the UK economy. Their plans, actions and opinions are a clear bellwether of our economic health. This survey was undertaken in light of the Government’s Spring Statement and six months on from the Autumn Budget, both of which contained significant fiscal announcements which created cost increases for businesses in many areas. That mid-market leaders remain this positive is notable."
“Having faced the considerable challenges of the last five years, dominated by the pandemic and its after-effects, many businesses are now hard-wired to withstand sudden shocks and have built resilience into their business model.”
Reflecting confidence levels, the April round recorded falls in investment expectations for all indicators from the record highs seen in February, returning to more average levels.
The biggest changes are decreased expectations across:
