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Business Outlook Tracker
Our unique insight into the UK mid-market
Every two months, we survey 600 business leaders across the country to understand their expectations and priorities for the future. We use this data to track changing market sentiment over time, and explore topical issues and challenges facing businesses in the UK.
UK economic outlook
This round finds that confidence in the market has remained steady above the rolling average, showing that the mid-market is consistently feeling optimistic.
Net 86% of respondents are optimistic about the outlook of the UK economy - a 5 percentage point (pp) increase compared to June and +15pp above average net confidence since 2021. Business pessimism about the UK economy remains at low levels.
Rolling averages for graph:
- Optimistic: 86%
- Pessimistic: 5%
Optimism on the outlook of the UK economy over next six months
Key moments in time that impacted market optimism
- July 2021: Official end to legal limits on social contact in England
- February 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine
- August 2022: Inflation rate in the UK hits double digits for first time in 40 years
- April 2023: Government Energy Bill Relief Scheme for businesses ends
- July 2024: Labour wins UK General Election
Revenue growth
Revenue growth expectations remained level since June and above the rolling average by +10pp. Net 5% of respondents are now pessimistic about their revenue growth, a decrease of -3pp since June.
Rolling averages for graph:
- Optimistic: 83%
- Pessimistic: 5%
Optimism on business revenue growth over next six months
Key moments in time that impacted market optimism
- July 2021: Official end to legal limits on social contact in England
- February 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine
- August 2022: Inflation rate in the UK hits double digits for first time in 40 years
- April 2023: Government Energy Bill Relief Scheme for businesses ends
- July 2024: Labour wins UK General Election
Funding position
Confidence in funding position remains above the rolling average (by +12pp). The percentage of businesses pessimistic about their position stayed low, continuing a slight downward trend since February.
Rolling averages for graph:
- Optimistic: 85%
- Pessimistic: 5%
Optimism on business funding position over next six months
Key moments in time that impacted market optimism
- July 2021: Official end to legal limits on social contact in England
- February 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine
- August 2022: Inflation rate in the UK hits double digits for first time in 40 years
- April 2023: Government Energy Bill Relief Scheme for businesses ends
- July 2024: Labour wins UK General Election
Profit expectations
Proft expectations are at the lowest point recorded since December 2021, with a steep decrease (-21pp) since June 2025. 52% expect to see a decline in profits in the next 6 months.
Profit growth expectations over next six months

Business investment expectations
Reflecting confidence levels, the September round recorded steady investment expectations, maintaining average levels. Despite the reported weakening in the labour market, recruitment expectations remain strong with 44% expecting to increase investment in hiring over the next six months. This is 9pp above the rolling average.
The biggest changes to investment expectations are:
- R&D (-6pp)
- technology (-4pp)
- ESG (-3pp).
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