Business Outlook Tracker

UK economic outlook

This round finds a dampening of confidence in the market since the highs at the beginning of the year. Despite this dip, confidence remains above the rolling average, showing that the mid-market isn't deterred.

Net 80% of respondents are optimistic about the outlook of the UK economy, a -3 percentage point (pp) increase compared to February, but +1pp above average net confidence increase since 2021. Business pessimism about the UK economy is still at low levels.

Rolling averages for graph: 

• Optimistic: 80%
• Pessimistic: 8%

Optimism on the outlook of the UK economy over next six months

Funding position

In April confidence in their funding position had fallen by -8pp from the highest levels ever seen on the Tracker in February. The percentage of businesses pessimistic about their position remained low, with only a +1pp increase since February.

Rolling averages for graph:

• Optimistic: 80%
• Pessimistic: 8%

Optimism on business funding position over next six months

Business investment expectations

Reflecting confidence levels, the April round recorded falls in investment expectations for all indicators from the record highs seen in February, returning to more average levels.

The biggest changes are decreased expectations across:

• technology (-11pp)
• plant, machinery and new buildings (-10pp)
• employee reward and benefits (-8pp)
• recruitment (-8pp).