Commissioned by Scottish Government and developed by Grant Thornton, the USA Export Plan delivers targeted, state-level insights that highlight where Scotland’s sector strengths most effectively align with specific US market demands across eight priority sectors. Backed by extensive evidence, it offers a robust framework to strengthen US trade.
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Scotland sets course for US growth with evidence led export plan
In the Programme for Government (2025), the Scottish Government committed to developing a Six Point Export Plan focused on actions to unlock target markets, showcase Scotland to global buyers, and enable more companies to participate in trade missions to both established and emerging markets. The first step in this Six Point Plan is the development of the US Export Plan, which identifies states offering the best markets for Scottish products and services.
This research delivers on that commitment. It provides an independent, data-driven, sector-specific assessment of the US market at a state level, identifying where Scotland’s strengths most effectively align with US demand, while also identifying specific trends and opportunities over the longer term.
A strategic and practical tool
The plan serves both a strategic and practical role. It informs government decisions on where to focus resources and engagement, while also offering Scottish exporters clearer insight into which states and subsectors present the strongest opportunities and why.
The USA Export Plan is designed to complement and reinforce existing sector strategies. Established plans such as the Food and Drink Export Plan, Technology Sector Export Plan, and Life Sciences Export Plan remain central, with the new work adding a geographical lens that pinpoints where those strengths are most likely to succeed across the US.
Evidence at the core
At the heart of the plan is a suite of evidence‑based deliverables:
- Sector Export Reports covering eight priority sectors, with analysis of Scotland’s economic strengths, long term trends, competition, regulatory considerations, and state level US opportunities. Each identifies at least five US states where Scottish businesses are well positioned to succeed.
- A Sector‑to‑State Matrix, provided as an adaptable Excel tool that draws on more than 100 key performance indicators, mapping Scotland’s priority sectors against all US states to highlight best‑fit opportunities. This tool can be updated over time, ensuring the framework remains responsive to changing market conditions.
- Priority State Profiles for the top five overall states, outlining economic conditions, regulatory environments, existing memoranda of understanding, and the most relevant sectors for Scottish exporters.
Regular consultation with industry stakeholders has been built into the development process, ensuring the findings reflect real‑time market dynamics and practical experience.
Five priority states identified alongside other notable opportunity states
Using this evidence led approach, the analysis identifies California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois as the top overall priority states for Scotland. Each performs strongly across multiple sectors and offers both immediate commercial appeal and longer term growth potential.
Alongside the top five, the research highlights a wider group of other notable opportunity states that offer niche or emerging prospects. While smaller in scale, these markets may enable Scottish firms to secure early mover advantages in specific subsectors.
The top five states share common strengths, including large and diverse populations, strong economic fundamentals, high levels of trade and import activity, access to venture capital and internationally recognised industry clusters. At the same time, each presents distinct advantages, from California’s global leadership in technology and innovation, to Texas’s pro business environment, New York’s role as a financial services hub, Florida’s tourism and hospitality strength, and Illinois’s logistical connectivity.
Moving beyond a one‑size‑fits‑all approach
The plan emphasises the need for a state‑specific and sector‑specific approach for successful engagement in the US. While some states, such as California and Texas, offer breadth across many sectors, others demonstrate more concentrated strengths – for example, Michigan in advanced manufacturing, Connecticut in insurance, Massachusetts in pharmaceutical services, and Washington State in space.
The analysis also highlights the importance of targeting specific city and regional hubs within states, such as San Francisco for FinTech or Houston for space‑related activity, enabling more focused and effective engagement.
The report reinforces the value of a dual‑track prioritisation approach: combining resource‑intensive engagement in the highest‑priority markets with agile, opportunity‑driven activity in emerging or specialist states. This balance is expected to improve alignment with business needs, increase flexibility in response to regulatory changes and build a stronger long‑term pipeline of export opportunities.
Turning insight into action
Scotland already maintains a strong in‑market presence across the US through Scottish Development International, GlobalScots, Trade Envoys, and the Scottish Government’s Washington Hub, alongside a programme of export promotion, trade missions, and business support such as the US Market Booster programme.
The new framework enhances these efforts by enabling more precise targeting of activity, better alignment between sectors and locations, and a clearer understanding of how federal and state‑level policies shape commercial opportunity.
The Scottish Government will now use the findings to guide the delivery of A Trading Nation, address data gaps at state level, and continue monitoring political and regulatory change in the US to ensure export support remains responsive and effective.
Together, the evidence and recommendations in the USA Export Plan represent a significant step forward in Scotland’s approach to international trade with the US – turning deep analysis into practical action to support Scottish businesses to succeed across the US market.
