Tariffs have the potential to reshape where and how businesses source, model, price, and compete.  

While a US federal court ruled on 28 May that the current tariffs regime is not legally enforceable, a temporary stay on that ruling has been granted and The White House remains committed to defending the tariffs. Amid this uncertainty, businesses must remain prepared. 

If the tariffs remain in place, 95% of CFOs* tell us that it will impact their finance function’s priorities – and their focus will not be solely on risk mitigation. Instead, they are exploring opportunities emerging from this evolving landscape, aligning with Finance’s broader shift toward a more strategic, value-driven role.  

This sentiment is reinforced by the findings of our Finance Leaders Baromoter, with 39% of CFOs anticipating that their team will play a greater role in strategic planning and investment decisions over the next 6-12 months due to tariff developments.

In this insight, our experts unpack how UK-based CFOs plan to respond to the tariffs landscape across several areas, from scenario analysis to customs. 

Scenario modelling challenges

Tom Middleton, Economics Consulting Director and David Mountjoy, Head of Financial Modelling – Transactions

Only 49% of CFOs say that they have undertaken any form of scenario analysis in response to the tariffs to date. That's over half of finance teams operating without clear visibility on how trade scenarios could impact their cost bases, profit margins, investment cases and more.

The prospective tariff regime sees changes almost daily, and many supply chains are globally interconnected and complex. As a result, understanding what and how different tariffs may impact a business requires niche expertise and crucial research.  

Given the size of the task at hand, it is unsurprising to see that more than half of finance functions are yet to undertake any form of scenario analysis. For 28% of CFOs, this is because of a lack of capability, given the complexity of factors that could be considered in the context of tariffs.  
 

What CFOs say:

Some finance teams may lack the necessary tools to conduct high-level scenario analysis. Whether Excel financial models or more detailed enterprise forecasting systems, these tools are essential to allow management teams to assess the potential impact and identify possible mitigating actions.

Others may be unsure about what changes to make to their forecast assumptions due to the specialist nature of the economic considerations. Whether the limitation stems from a lack of expertise, tools, capacity or a blend of all three, the result is that strategy is not evidence-based. CFOs are left unable to articulate the potential impact of tariffs on profitability, cash flow, and covenant position to the Board.

Finance teams that can quickly adapt and gain visibility into a range of possible outcomes will be best positioned to make informed decisions, shaping effective strategies across investment, supply chains, and pricing.

Even if the tariffs are overturned, the recent volatility has underscored the need for businesses to build robust scenario modelling capabilities – or work with the right advisers – to be able to respond swiftly and strategically to sudden shifts in the global landscape. 

Find out how our modelling team can develop a bespoke financial model for your business → 

 

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"In such a volatile environment, scenario analysis is crucial. It’s encouraging to see a growing recognition of this among CFOs – with 42% reporting that their finance functions will place greater emphasis on this over the next 12 months. Once businesses have this analysis, they will be able to make informed strategic decisions on everything form investment to supply chains to pricing."
Tom Middleton Director

Pricing strategy adjustments

Simon Davidson, Head of Finance Consulting

If tariffs remain in place, only 28% of CFOs indicate that they will absorb all associated costs. The majority, however, plan to pass on at least some of these to customers. 

The right pricing decisions depend on a web of economic factors, including what your competitors do, how your customers will respond to price increases, and the scope a business has for margin erosion.

Where possible, price increases should be strategically applied only to the specific products or customer segments that are well positioned to absorb them.  

The finance teams that are able to model a range of scenarios to define their strategy, alongside market testing and customer polling, will be well positioned to identify where adjustments will have the least resistance, and where profit margins are most vulnerable. 

What CFOs say:


Equally important is how these pricing changes are communicated. In a competitive market, transparency, timing, and messaging matter. Finance leaders need to ensure that tariff-related price increases are communicated in a way that aligns with broader brand strategy.

All of the above will require reliable, timely, trusted data. Finance teams are often the stewards of data and CFOs the sponsor of strong data governance. Those foundations are vital in the fast-changing environment. 

Navigating customs

Adam Taylor, Head of Customs and Excise Duties

Customs regulations play a key role in determining costs, compliance obligations, and time-to-market, yet many businesses lack the in-house expertise to navigate them effectively. 66% of CFOs acknowledge they will need external support to manage their impact.  

Whilst the future of the Liberation Day tariffs is uncertain, there may be powers that could be used to introduce the tariffs under a different legal mechanism. 

Without the right guidance, businesses risk underestimating duties, misclassifying goods, and/or missing out on relief schemes. These carry both financial and reputational risks. 

If the tariffs remain, CFOs may need to work with advisers to put in place mitigation strategies to reduce the impact should the ruling be overturned and the tariffs return. These strategies should focus on the three pillars of customs compliance:

What CFOs say:

1. Origin of products 

A product's origin, not just its shipping point, will determine its duty rate. Businesses should assess whether supply chain adjustments or alternative processing locations could alter a product’s origin and lower tariff exposure. A series of tests are used to verify sufficient transformation, ensuring compliance while optimising costs.

2. Customs valuation 

Managing customs valuation effectively offers another avenue for businesses to minimise the impact of tariffs. The nature of transactions within supply chains should be reviewed and checks made to ensure that efficient but compliant values are being declared.  

3. Classification  

The US has not applied tariffs on all products; several hundred commodity codes are excluded. Businesses need to check whether their goods are on the list and be confident that the commodity code you have assigned to the goods is correct – with misclassifications leading to costly penalties.

Catch up on our technical tax update for more insight on navigating tax risk in a dynamic global landscape →

Unlocking strategic opportunities  

Despite the challenges, it’s not all negative news – 95% of CFOs surveyed believe that the tariffs landscape could open up new strategic avenues for their business.

What strategic opportunities do CFOs see emerging from the current tariff landscape?  

1. Revisiting supply chains 

Laura Gardner, ESG and sustainability reporting

Supply chain nearshoring and diversification have unsurprisingly emerged as key approaches to reduce dependency on single markets, mitigate risks, and enhance operational resilience. To support these efforts, finance leaders need to collaborate closely with logistics, legal, and commercial teams to identify key dependencies, assess alternative sourcing options, and model different scenarios with speed and flexibility. 

However, while most CFOs recognise the strategic value of making supply chain changes, only 38% report having a complete understanding of their supply chain beyond its financial implications. 

This isn't surprising. Understanding and mapping out a business' full value chain is a complex, time-consuming task, even for large organisations with dedicated procurement teams.  

However, investing in a more detailed understanding of the supply chain now will bring multiple benefits. 

With new sustainability reporting regulations such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards set to impact UK businesses, it will help with preparing the organisation for incoming regulations, whist also helping strengthen your position for future investment, risk management, and competitive advantage. 

2. M&A opportunities

Peter Terry, Head of Private Equity

CFOs will be expected to play a proactive role in identifying where trade dynamics create market dislocation or offer opportunities to consolidate.

For some, this will mean acquiring distressed competitors facing tariff-related financial strain, turning industry volatility into an avenue for strengthening market positioning. Others will be exploring entry into protected geographies where competitors face pricing barriers.

Beyond immediate expansion, M&A activity in this environment will need to be carefully assessed, factoring in regulatory compliance, post-merger integration complexities, and long-term tariff exposure. CFOs who can support the business to navigate these challenges will be well-positioned to drive sustainable growth despite ongoing trade uncertainty.

3. Expanding into new markets

Unsurprisingly, many multinational businesses will be looking to adopt a more cautious approach when looking at expanding into new markets and shift their focus away from the US, in search of alternative regions with strong demand potential and lower risk exposure.  

Given the current climate, Southeast Asia, India, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe are some of the markets which offer an attractive alternative, due to factors such as growth potential, emerging consumer demand, and favourable economic conditions. These markets are seen as promising avenues for growth, driven by evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements. 

Browse more Finance Leaders Barometer insights, including interviews with finance leaders, in one place.  

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*These findings are taken from an anonymous survey of 300 CFOs. The data was obtained between 13 May and 20 May 2025. All respondents come from UK-based businesses across sectors, markets and regions.