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Autumn Budget 2025: Promises, policies and pressures

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The Government faces a fiscal balancing act in this year’s Autumn Budget – are the scales tipping towards higher taxes?
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With November’s Budget fast approaching, speculation around the Government’s plans remains high. The Government has pledged not to raise National Insurance, income tax rates (basic, higher and additional), VAT, or the headline rate of corporation tax – despite these four taxes accounting for nearly 75% of total combined tax receipts.  

How will the Chancellor raise meaningful revenue without breaking these promises? Smaller adjustments across multiple taxes risks adding further complexity to an already intricate tax system, with potential trade-offs for growth and investment, which are both critical to reversing the UK’s ever-growing tax burden.  

Recent signals suggest pressure mounting on both the Government and businesses – we’ve spoken to our tax experts on the economic goals the Government is pursuing, and the real-world results businesses are seeing. 

Corporation Tax – Economic growth or rising costs?

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Abby Agopian, Head of Tax Policy: 

"The Corporation Tax (CT) Roadmap, published alongside last year's Autumn Budget, was really the key business offer from that budget. It was looking to provide predictability, stability and certainty over the tax landscape to help businesses make investments and drive growth. There's lots in that roadmap on what won't change, including the CT headline rate, and it also provides certainty that some of the UK's attractive incentives such as full expensing, R&D tax credits and the Patent Box will remain."

Rachel Parker, Partner, Tax: 

"It's not all smooth sailing – businesses are under pressure from many directions. Corporate tax rose to 25% in 2023 and increases in National Insurance and the National Minimum Wage from April this year have added further pressure for many businesses. Margins are really tight, and they're feeling the squeeze."

Rachel Parker, Partner, Tax: 

"In the Budget businesses would like to see certainty, to allow them to make long-term strategic decisions, and an expansion and extension of those reliefs that are already available such as research and development credits and the Patent Box." 

Abby Agopian, Head of Tax Policy: 

"A budget board was created in early September by the Prime Minister, and that was tasked with driving growth and maintaining support from both businesses and the city. While the Government may be aiming for a more business-friendly tone this time around, fiscal pressures do remain, and it faces a difficult balance in maintaining fiscal stability whilst also driving economic growth."

Starting a business in the UK – Support for SMEs or mounting tax pressures?

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Tim Taylor, Head of Entrepreneurial Services: 

"The Government's promise to support entrepreneurs is backed by initiatives like the Plan for Change and Invest 2035, a long-term industrial strategy to boost UK productivity. These strategies aim to unlock growth and provide certainty around investment and skills development, especially in the mid-market, which has been the most productive segment of our economy since 2018."

Tim Taylor, Head of Entrepreneurial Services: 

"Many SMEs are nervous and uncertainty around the future appears to be acting as a drag on the economy. This could have an adverse effect on hiring, investment and succession planning."

Nicholas Parkinson, Partner, Tax:

"We're seeing some clients accelerate actions that they wish to take anyway before the budget, while others are preparing, but pausing major decisions to avoid unintended long-term impacts."

Nicholas Parkinson, Partner, Tax

"There's been much speculation from businesses and from the media as everyone tries to understand what may happen next. And we expect this to intensify as Budget day approaches."

Tim Taylor, Head of Entrepreneurial Services:

"We've been working with our clients, thinking about how they can attract the right amount of talent into the business, such as looking at the benefits package, flexibility within the benefits package, and ways in which you can hold key personnel within that business, such as management, incentivised share schemes and phantom shares."

Nicholas Parkinson, Partner, Tax: 

"If we can create real certainty over Government policy for the next few years, surely that's going to really create the growth that both the Government and all of us are really hoping for."

Struggling to understand how policy will affect your reality? Sign up to our webinar which will examine where Budget announcements may collide with commercial reality - and what you can do about it.